College Football 26 Release Date
Welcome to the CFB 26 CUT Ultimate Team Card Rankings
We are on a mission to use scripted, large sample data collection to create a different way to rank the CFB 26 CUT cards. There are many a number of factors that determine the effectiveness of a card and we want to see if we can program identical scripted plays ran repeatedly thousands of times to figure out which combination of Speed, Height, Weight, Animations or other attributes is ideal for each position.
Are All 89s created equal? Is Speed King?
We want to prove that 2 cards with identical overalls can perform drastically differently depending on the situation you are in. Height and weight operate independently from attribute ratings and it is our goal to find out just how important these factors are. Right now we believe speed is king and the other attributes are a tier below speed at best in terms of importance.
Through repeat testing of various CUT cards we should be able to quantify what attributes like Short, Medium and Deep Route running do or find breakpoints in attributes like Press or Release.
How does it work?
Our methodology involves using scripted plays to gather data on card performance. By running these plays thousands of times, we can identify which attributes have the most significant impact on a card's effectiveness in various situations.
We are starting by testing the 88 Speed Randy Moss Card, because I cannot afford the other, against 4 different CBs. The CBs selected were Leonard Moore, Travis Hunter, Xavier Scott and Davien Kerr. This gives us CBs with Overall ratings of 89, 88, 87 and 85 respectively.
Takeoff Speed Test
We wanted to start with what we currently believe to be the most important attribute in speed. For this test, there was no script or automation. We jumped in Practice mode with the cards and recorded Randy Moss' takeoff while pressed by each CB.
We're testing two possible outcomes: the receiver either Beats the CB or is Bagged. Using a two-proportion Z-test and a sample size of 500 reps per WR-CB matchup, we can reasonably detect a 4% difference in outcome rates with 95% confidence.
Example Outcomes
Takeoff Speed Results
| WR ↕️ | WR OVR ↕️ | CB ↕️ | CB OVR ↕️ | Beat CB ↕️ | Bagged ↕️ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Leonard Moore | CB OVR ↕️ 89 | Beat CB ↕️ 36.8% | Bagged ↕️ 63.2% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Travis Hunter | CB OVR ↕️ 88 | Beat CB ↕️ 38% | Bagged ↕️ 62% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Xavier Scott | CB OVR ↕️ 87 | Beat CB ↕️ 44.6% | Bagged ↕️ 55.4% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Davien Kerr | CB OVR ↕️ 85 | Beat CB ↕️ 57.4% | Bagged ↕️ 42.6% |
Switching On vs Allowing the AI to make the Catch
The second category of CUT Card testing is Contested Catches and the first step for us was to write a script that leads a WR into a contested catch. A key question we had right away was, "How Important is Switching to the Receiver and Usering the Catch?"
We used the play Flood out of Gun Bunch Open Offset. We had the Free Safety blitz the QB creating a 1 on 1 matchup and timed the script to hit the wide receiver at the exact same point in the route every time and take immediate contact from the defender.
We do not need to do every combination of WR and CB for this test but simply prove 1 time that switching on to the receiver and hitting A to make the catch is beneficial. We used Randy Moss and Xavier Scott for the test and threw 100 contested passes with and without switching on. Our sample size was much lower here because we were pretty confident we were going to be able to see the difference between the 2 pretty easily.
| Type ↕️ | Catch ↕️ | Broken Up ↕️ |
|---|---|---|
Type ↕️ User Catch | Catch ↕️ 84% | Broken Up ↕️ 16% |
Type ↕️ AI Catch | Catch ↕️ 54% | Broken Up ↕️ 46% |
It is important to remember that we cannot control the defense and offense in practice mode at the same time in Ultimate Team so we cannot automate a user contest from the defensive side. Hitting Right Stick Up or X/Square to hit the wide receiver will cause more broken up passes than listed here.
Switching onto the WR and hitting calling for a catch greatly increases the number of catches by simply reducing the impact the wide receiver takes. The key takeaway from this test is that there is a skill gap in switching onto the receiver and calling for a catch If you feel like you have a lot of drops, are you calling for a catch or letting the AI catch it?
Contested Catches Chart
| WR ↕️ | WR OVR ↕️ | CB ↕️ | CB OVR ↕️ | Catch ↕️ | Break Up ↕️ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Leonard Moore | CB OVR ↕️ 89 | Catch ↕️ 57.8% | Break Up ↕️ 42.2% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Travis Hunter | CB OVR ↕️ 88 | Catch ↕️ 39.4% | Break Up ↕️ 60.6% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Xavier Scott | CB OVR ↕️ 87 | Catch ↕️ 69.6% | Break Up ↕️ 30.4% |
WR ↕️ Randy Moss | WR OVR ↕️ 88 | CB ↕️ Davien Kerr | CB OVR ↕️ 85 | Catch ↕️ 69.2% | Break Up ↕️ 30.8% |
Now that we have a script for switching on and catching contested passes, we can use it to compare our WR and CB combos to see which CBs are best at breaking up passing and which WRs are the best at securing the catch.
Leonard Moore Clips
Travis Hunter Clips
Xavier Scott Clips
Davien Kerr Clips
Labs WR Rankings
| Rank | WR | OVR |
|---|---|---|
Rank 1 | WR Randy Moss | OVR 88 |
Labs CB Rankings
| Rank | CB | OVR |
|---|---|---|
Rank 1 | CB Leonard Moore | OVR 89 |
Rank 2 | CB Travis Hunter | OVR 88 |
Rank 3 | CB Xavier Scott | OVR 87 |
Rank 4 | CB Davien Kerr | OVR 85 |